A 0.004% Upset at NAGA Boston and a 40-Win Streak Falls at ADCC
Twenty tournaments, 6,190 matches, eleven organizations. Frank Alexander Femino II pulls a 0.004% upset in Boston, Ivan Makarov’s 40-0 record ends in Orlando, and GOOD FIGHT Maryland finishes 81% by submission.
Frank Alexander Femino II walks into the NAGA Boston Grappling Championship rated 1,294 Jits. His opponent, Guilherme Lopes, sits at 10,010. The gap is 8,716 Jits. The win probability is 0.004%. Femino wins by points.
Twenty tournaments across eleven organizations produce 6,190 matches this weekend. Grappling Industries Tampa leads with 695. The JJWL Arizona State Championship draws 885 competitors across gi and no-gi. GOOD FIGHT: MD Thanksgiving Throwdown runs 241 matches and finishes 81% of them by submission.
Star Performances
Two submissions, gold medal. The yellow belt from Atos HQ gains 2,500 Jits in two matches — the largest per-match efficiency among all weekend MVPs.
Five straight wins — three by submission, two by points — and a gold medal in Hickory. The blue belt from Riptide MMA does not drop a single match.
Six wins at the ADCC US Open in Orlando — four by submission, two by points. The only loss keeps him from a perfect day, but the grey belt from Team Chokelab still walks away with the third-highest Jits gain of the weekend.
Perfect 4-0 at NAGA Boston with a balanced attack — two submissions and two points wins for gold.
The weekend’s most efficient performance belongs to Hazel Humphrey of Atos HQ. Two matches, two submissions, 2,500 Jits gained. That is 1,250 Jits per match — a rate that no other top performer comes close to matching. The yellow belt enters the JJWL Arizona State Championship field of 521 competitors and exits with gold.
Houston Rudisill takes a longer path to the same result at NAGA North Carolina: five wins, three by submission, zero losses. At the ADCC US Open in Orlando, John Luke Hernandez of Team Chokelab posts six wins in a tournament running a 70% submission rate — the highest of any event this weekend.
The Deep Brackets
Jon Law competes 14 times in a single day at Grappling Industries Saratoga Springs. He wins 13, loses one, and gains 7,140 Jits — the seventh-largest rating jump of the weekend. The white belt adult runs six wins in his gi division and five more in no-gi. That is the highest match volume of any single fighter across all twenty tournaments.
Lorenzo Lopes of Asenjo BJJ wins six straight in the grey belt under-65 lb bracket at Grappling Industries Tampa. Ryla Jaye Knight sweeps both gi and no-gi brackets at Grappling Industries Colorado Springs with five wins in each. The Grappling Industries round-robin format continues to produce the deepest brackets on the circuit — three of this weekend’s four highest match-volume fighters come from GI events.
Upsets and Surprises
An 8,716-Jits gap. A 0.004% win probability. Femino takes it on points in Children Gi Expert. The widest upset we have recorded this season.
McElroy beats Stembridge by points in the pre-teen grey belt division at the US Nationals in Kansas City.
Mahlock closes a 3,410-Jits gap at the ADCC US Open in the boys 9-10 intermediate division. Rated 1,230, he beats a yellow belt sitting at 4,640.
A white belt submits a 5,140-Jits grey belt in Teens No-Gi Beginner. Remington closes a 3,121-Jits gap by submission — the only top-four upset finished before the clock.
The Femino upset stands alone. An 8,716-Jits gap is the widest we have seen this season — and it comes from a yellow belt in the Children Expert division, not an unranked newcomer catching a fluke. Femino enters rated 1,294, faces a fighter at 10,010, and takes it on points.
Beyond the top four, Kiera Mae Carter of Gracie Barra pulls a 3,020-Jits upset over Sophie Maderazo at the AGF US National Gi Championships. Carter goes on to finish the weekend 3-0 with gold — earning her a spot in the MVP list as well.
The streak-breaker column is loaded. Ivan Makarov’s 40-win streak falls at the ADCC US Open — ended by Lorenzo Lopes of Asenjo BJJ, the same fighter who wins six straight at GI Tampa. Matthew McPherson (32-0) drops to Jacob K Slate at the US Nationals. Abigale Gross (20-0) at NAGA Boston, Ozzie Knudson (20-0) at GI Colorado Springs, and Tori Mock (20-0) at GOOD FIGHT Maryland. Five streaks of 20-plus — including one of 40 — all broken on the same weekend.
Academy Report
| Academy | Tournament | Fighters | Medals | Gold | Silver | Bronze |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lotus Club | AZ State Gi + NoGi | 52 | 60 | 35 | 19 | 6 |
| Victory Martial Arts BJJ | NAGA North Carolina | 20 | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 |
| Oneonta Academy of Jiu Jitsu | GI Saratoga Springs | 23 | 37 | 11 | 16 | 10 |
| Blackstone Jiu Jitsu Academy | GI Tampa | 21 | 35 | 10 | 16 | 9 |
| Flow State Jiu-Jitsu (Falcon) | GI Colorado Springs | 18 | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
Lotus Club dominates the JJWL Arizona State Championship with 60 medals from 52 fighters — 35 of them gold. That gold rate (58%) leads all academies with 20-plus competitors this weekend. Victory Martial Arts BJJ runs the most efficient operation: 38 medals from just 20 fighters, a 1.9 medals-per-fighter rate, anchoring the NAGA North Carolina field.
Tournament Scoreboard
| Tournament | Org | Matches | Sub Rate | Top Academy | Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GI Tampa | GI | 695 | 52% | Blackstone JJA (35) | Largest single-event field, Lopes wins 6 straight |
| GI Saratoga Springs | GI | 556 | 51% | Oneonta AJJ (37) | Law competes 14 times in one day |
| JJWL AZ State Gi | JJWL | 515 | 55% | Lotus Club (34) | 521 competitors, Humphrey’s 2-0 sub sweep |
| ADCC US Open | ADCC | 438 | 70% | Dragons Lair MMA (20) | Makarov’s 40-win streak broken, 70% sub rate |
| Tap Cancer Out MA | TCO | 417 | 53% | Carl Clan BJJ (12) | Youth charity event in Danvers |
| GI Colorado Springs | GI | 410 | 65% | Flow State JJ (31) | Knight sweeps gi and no-gi brackets |
| FUJI Destin | FUJI BJJ | 396 | 54% | MAGJJ (21) | Fort Walton Beach draws 396 matches |
| NAGA Boston | NAGA | 381 | 58% | Brabos BJJ (18) | Femino’s 0.004% upset over 10,010-Jits Lopes |
| NAGA NC | NAGA | 374 | 45% | Victory MA (38) | Rudisill goes 5-0, Remington submits grey belt |
| JJWL AZ State NoGi | JJWL | 288 | 64% | Lotus Club (26) | 64% sub rate, Oprea’s 19-win streak falls |
Monday Ratings Movers
Jack Eli Mills of Carlson Gracie Team gains +9,580 Jits on a perfect 9-0 weekend — the largest single-weekend Glicko-2 move across all twenty tournaments. Nine wins, zero losses, and a jump to 5,895 Jits. His Carlson Gracie teammate Timothy Patrick Dumas goes 6-0 for +7,620 Jits — two fighters from the same academy posting top-five gains on the same day.
Sajni Stephens goes 8-0 for +9,080 Jits, the second-largest gain of the weekend. Jon Law translates his 13-1 marathon at Saratoga Springs into +7,140 Jits. On the drops side, David Cordova takes the hardest fall: -4,240 Jits on a 2-5 weekend.
Risers
| # | Fighter | Record | Tier | Rating | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Eli Mills | 9-0 | Prodigy | 5,895 | +9,580 |
| 2 | Sajni Stephens | 8-0 | Prodigy | 4,506 | +9,080 |
| 3 | Mason Ulrich | 4-0 | Prodigy | 4,340 | +7,800 |
| 4 | Timothy Patrick Dumas | 6-0 | Prodigy | 3,387 | +7,620 |
| 5 | Mark Neu | 6-0 | Prodigy | 4,479 | +7,430 |
Drops
| # | Fighter | Record | Tier | Rating | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Cordova | 2-5 | Elite | 2,324 | -4,240 |
| 2 | Liam Logan | 1-6 | Elite | 2,039 | -3,820 |
| 3 | Presley Stith | 0-4 | Elite | 4,022 | -3,730 |
| 4 | Liliana Tilford | 0-4 | Elite | 2,406 | -3,280 |
| 5 | Enzo Ribeiro | 4-1 | Novice | 2,588 | -3,060 |
Looking Ahead
Thanksgiving week thins the schedule, but the circuit does not stop. NAGA, AGF, and Newbreed events continue across the South and Midwest. After a 6,190-match weekend with five broken win streaks and the widest upset of the fall, the December championship season is next. The numbers are in. The ratings recalculate Monday.
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