Hicks Gains 10,160 Jits Despite Two Upset Losses
Fifteen tournaments, ten organizations, 6,007 matches. A 45-win streak falls in San Antonio, ADCC New Jersey runs 70% subs, and one fighter proves that context beats record.
Ryker Adair Hicks of Checkmat goes 4-2 at AGF Foley. Both losses are upsets by submission — a 3,940-Jits gap to Michael Carter Jr and a 3,368-Jits gap to Yancel Ortiz. He gains +10,160 Jits anyway. The four wins — all by submission, all against quality opponents — are worth more than the two losses cost. That is what strength of schedule does in Glicko-2.
Fifteen tournaments across ten organizations produce 6,007 matches this weekend. ADCC US Open New Jersey leads with 757 and a 70% submission rate.
Star Performances
Four submissions in six matches. Gets caught twice by huge upsets and still posts the largest Jits gain of the weekend. Context beats record.
Two submissions and a points win at ADCC New Jersey. Gold medal quality in a 70% submission rate tournament.
Two submissions, gold medal at NAGA Denver. Clean and efficient.
One submission, one points win, gold medal at AGF Corpus Christi.
The Hicks story is the most interesting data point of the weekend. A 4-2 record rarely produces the largest Jits gain — and +10,160 is the biggest weekly move across all five weeks covered this month. The four wins include submissions over fighters rated well above him. The two losses are upsets where lower-rated fighters caught him. Glicko-2 weighs opponent strength, not win percentage.
Meanwhile at ADCC US Open New Jersey, Sainz Team Alpha Miami leads the medal count with 22, and the tournament's 70% submission rate is the highest among any event with 500-plus matches this weekend.
The Deep Brackets
Jason Nye of Giannetti Martial Arts wins six straight at Grappling Industries Boston — the only six-win bracket run of the weekend.
Grappling Industries Salt Lake City produces the deepest concentration of five-win runs. James Emmer of Agema Jiu Jitsu, Stockton O'Keef, Braxton Hardy, Elliot Stirland, and Lucas Victoria of Infinity BJJ Utah all go five deep. At ADCC New Jersey, Amir Fisher-Rantisi of Apex Sterling and Gabriel Morais Ferreira of Kairos Jiu Jitsu each take five.
Upsets and Surprises
Carter submits the weekend’s top Jits gainer. Hicks still finishes 4-2 with +10,160 Jits.
Kendall submits a 4,810-Jits grey belt from Rilion Gracie Miami Lakes at ADCC.
Cherry takes down a 6,480-Jits grey belt on points at AGF Corpus Christi.
The streak-breaking October continues. Mila Slater sees a 45-win streak broken by Gage Grein at Grappling Industries San Antonio. Ignacio Alejandro Galavis (39-0) falls to Herra Rose The Last Dragon at ADCC New Jersey. Jacinto Hernandez III (38-0) drops to Amilya Soares at Grappling Industries San Antonio. Evangeline Rose Cooney (32-0) loses to Kaci Elizabeth Yearwood at AGF Foley.
Four more 30-plus streaks gone. That makes nine in three weeks.
Academy Report
| Academy | Fighters | Medals | Gold | Silver | Bronze |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferny Jiu Jitsu | 24 | 43 | 11 | 22 | 10 |
| MAGJJ | 20 | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Spearfish Martial Arts | 20 | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 |
| Gracie Allegiance Texas | 18 | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 |
| SBG Texas | 19 | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 |
Ferny Jiu Jitsu leads the weekend with 43 medals from 24 fighters at the Inland Empire Open — nearly two medals per competitor. Spearfish Martial Arts runs the best gold rate among the top five: 14 golds from 20 fighters at NAGA Denver II. SBG Texas posts 15 golds from 19 fighters — the tightest gold-to-fighter ratio of the week.
Tournament Scoreboard
| Tournament | Org | Matches | Sub Rate | Top Academy | Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADCC US Open NJ | ADCC | 757 | 70% | Sainz Team Alpha (22) | 70% sub rate, Galavis (39-0) falls |
| NAGA Denver II | NAGA | 705 | 55% | Spearfish MA (34) | Mittan goes 2-0, Wilson (21-0) falls |
| GI Salt Lake City | Grappling Industries | 664 | 59% | Team Salomão (24) | Five five-win bracket runs |
| GI Boston | Grappling Industries | 643 | 54% | Team Forsa (15) | Nye runs 6 straight, only six-win bracket |
| AZBJJL Southwest Classic | AZBJJL | 533 | 56% | GB Queen Creek (30) | Caicedo (19-0) streak broken |
| Inland Empire Open | NABJJF | 424 | 54% | Ferny JJ (43) | Ferny JJ takes 43 medals from 24 fighters |
| AGF Foley | AGF | 414 | 58% | MAGJJ (35) | Hicks goes 4-2, gains +10,160 Jits |
| Newbreed GA Crystal Cup | Newbreed | 399 | 48% | Campeão United (23) | Lowest sub rate of major events |
| GI San Antonio | Grappling Industries | 390 | 57% | SBG Texas (31) | Slater (45-0) and Hernandez (38-0) both fall |
| TCO Chicago | TCO | 247 | 58% | ROL Academy (14) | Charity event, 247 matches |
| NAGA Richmond | NAGA | 235 | 54% | Odyssey MA (28) | Diehl goes 2-0, gold |
| AGF Corpus Christi | AGF | 212 | 50% | Gracie Allegiance TX (33) | Cherry pulls 3,460-Jits upset |
| United Las Vegas | United | 181 | 60% | AGA Vegas (30) | Noquez (23-0) streak broken |
| Newbreed Baton Rouge | Newbreed | 117 | 56% | Team Juggernaut (8) | Marino goes 3-1, all subs |
| FUJI BJJ Pittsburgh | FUJI BJJ | 86 | 67% | Nine Realms MMA (8) | 67% sub rate on small field |
Monday Ratings Movers
Ryker Adair Hicks of Checkmat Gulf Breeze gains +10,160 Jits on a 4-2 weekend at AGF Foley. A 4-2 record producing the largest move of the weekend says everything about how Glicko-2 weights opponent quality over simple win percentage.
Bosten Fry of Crown BJJ goes 8-0 for +8,800 Jits. Miles Oporto of Paul Toms Academy follows with 6-0 and +7,450 Jits. On the drops side, Jehu Garcia of Ohana Academy San Antonio takes the hardest fall: -5,150 Jits on a 1-6 weekend.
Risers
| # | Fighter | Record | Tier | Rating | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryker Adair Hicks | 4-2 | S-Tier | 5,535 | +10,160 |
| 2 | Bosten Fry | 8-0 | Prodigy | 4,823 | +8,800 |
| 3 | Miles Oporto | 6-0 | Prodigy | 3,730 | +7,450 |
| 4 | Cole Jordan Maver | 4-0 | Prodigy | 4,662 | +7,280 |
| 5 | Zaxter Cook | 4-0 | Elite | 3,304 | +7,000 |
| 6 | Zephyr Anderson | 5-0 | Advanced | 2,347 | +6,930 |
| 7 | Aria Mejia | 9-1 | Elite | 3,569 | +6,870 |
| 8 | Patrick Ronald Maver | 3-1 | S-Tier | 6,155 | +6,840 |
| 9 | Nicolás Gutierrez | 5-0 | Elite | 3,427 | +6,710 |
| 10 | Lena Swierczek | 6-0 | Elite | 3,381 | +6,120 |
Drops
| # | Fighter | Record | Tier | Rating | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jehu Garcia | 1-6 | Elite | 3,170 | -5,150 |
| 2 | Aiden Hardy | 0-4 | Elite | 2,598 | -4,360 |
| 3 | Cameron Cartier | 6-2 | Prospect | 3,363 | -2,990 |
| 4 | Maeson Randolph | 0-2 | Elite | 3,475 | -2,990 |
| 5 | Victoria Zygas | 0-2 | Advanced | 2,928 | -2,990 |
Looking Ahead
The October correction continues. Nine 30-plus win streaks have fallen across the last three weekends. The Hicks data point reframes how to read the Jits system: a 4-2 record with four submissions over quality opponents gains more than most 6-0 runs against weaker fields. The rating rewards who you beat, not how clean your record looks.
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