Sample Report

Bracket Intel Report

Lennox Xavier Gilmore

IBJJF Single Elimination • Grey Belt • Male • Junior 3 • Middle Weight

Executive Summary

Lennox Gilmore enters this 7-man bracket as an undefeated unknown — 5-0 with 2 golds, zero losses, but against the lowest tier of competition available (NAGA beginner/white belt). This bracket is a 4x step-up in difficulty from anything he has faced. The field includes two elite fighters from national top-10 academies, a proven contender from the #1 academy in the country, and two battle-hardened competitors with 30+ combined tournament entries. Lennox's path to a medal requires winning 2-3 matches against opponents with 3-6x his experience. This is his proving ground.

	Lennox	Bracket Avg (excl. Lennox)
Career Matches	5	20.7
Win Rate	100%	55.6%
Golds	2	6.2
Competition Level	NAGA Beginner	IBJJF/JJWL/AGF Regional-National
Academy Rank	#333	#76 avg

The Bracket at a Glance

Seed	Fighter	Record	Rating	Academy	Profile
1	Troy le Wong	21-5 (80.8%)	990	BJJ Revolution Team	Profile
2	Eli Scott Vejrostek	21-9 (70.0%)	840	Rockstar South Frisco	Profile
3	Theodore Tran	17-9 (65.4%)	432	Pablo Silva BJJ	Profile
4	Joshua R Nelson	7-6 (53.8%)	168	Soul Fighters Leander	Profile
—	Marco Martinez	8-14 (36.4%)	—	LEAD BJJ	Profile
—	Lennox Xavier Gilmore	5-0 (100%)	—	Gracie Humaita Austin	Profile
—	Jackson Glen Ahlstrand	2-5 (28.6%)	—	Bastos BJJ Midland	Profile

Competitive Landscape

Tier 1 — Elite

Must beat one to medal, both to win gold

Troy le Wong and Eli Vejrostek are separated from the field by a 400+ rating point gap. Together they account for 49% of all wins in the bracket (42 of 81) and 51% of all golds (20 of 39). This is not a parity bracket — it is a two-horse race with a supporting cast.

Tier 2 — Contender

Theodore Tran is the clear #3. Nine golds, 26 career matches, trained at the #1 nationally ranked academy. He consistently reaches finals but struggles to close against elite opponents.

Tier 3 — Developing

Joshua Nelson (coin-flip competitor, 53.8%), Marco Martinez (losing record, 36.4%), and Jackson Ahlstrand (2-5 but IBJJF-experienced) round out the bracket. These are winnable matchups for Lennox.

Tier ? — Lennox Gilmore

Unranked, undefeated, untested at this level. The bracket's biggest variance factor.

The Lennox Gilmore Profile

What We Know

Metric	Value	Context
Record	5-0	Perfect, but smallest sample in bracket
Golds	2	100% podium conversion
Rating	Unranked	Insufficient data for ranking algorithm
Career Matches	5	73% fewer than bracket average
Tournaments	1	NAGA Austin, April 12, 2025
Academy	Gracie Humaita Austin (#333)	Smallest academy in bracket (24 fighters)

Full Match Tape (5 matches, 1 tournament)

#	Opponent	Method	Opp. Belt	Weight	Format
1	Antonio Cruz	Points	White	80-89.9	Gi
2	Cameron Andres	Points	White	80-89.9	Gi
3	William Flynn	Submission	White	80-89.9	Nogi
4	James Latimer	Points	Grey	80-89.9	Nogi
5	Cameron Andres	Points	White	80-89.9	Nogi

Stylistic profile: 4 points wins, 1 submission. Primarily a points fighter at this stage. Only 1 of 5 opponents was a grey belt — the other 4 were white belts at NAGA beginner level.

What the 5-0 Tells Us — and What It Doesn't

The good news: Lennox has never lost. He won both gi and nogi at the same event. He can finish (1 submission). And he's done it with zero scouting pressure — nobody in this bracket has seen him compete.

The critical gap: NAGA beginner/white belt is the lowest tier of organized competition. The jump to IBJJF grey belt Junior 3 against kids from national top-10 academies is the largest competition-level increase possible. His 5-0 is a hypothesis. This bracket is the experiment.

The math: With 5 matches, his “true” win rate has a wide confidence interval. A fighter who is actually 70% could go 5-0 over 5 matches (16.8% probability). Even a 60% fighter has a 7.8% chance. The sample is too small to distinguish elite from good.

Opponent Scouting Reports

#1 Troy le Wong

BJJ Revolution Team

The Finisher. The bracket favorite. The hardest possible draw.

Metric	Value
Record	21-5 (80.8%)
Rating	990
Submission finish rate	78% (7 of 8 tracked wins by submission)
Times submitted	0
Loss pattern	Finals only — never loses early rounds

Full Match Tape (9 JJWL matches)

Date	Tournament	Opponent	Result	Method	Score	Round
2025-11-08	Nationals South Nogi	Alexander Nelson	W	Submission	2-0	Early
2025-11-08	Nationals South Nogi	Alexander Jones	W	Submission	4-0	FINAL
2025-09-13	Houston XVI Gi	Joseph Januskey	W	Submission	9-0	FINAL
2025-09-13	Houston XVI Gi	Alexander Jones	W	Submission	4-0	Early
2025-04-26	Houston XIV Nogi	Joseph London	W	Submission	5-0	FINAL
2025-04-26	Houston XIV Nogi	Nolan Mergenthaler	W	Points	8-0	Early
2025-04-26	Houston XIV Gi	Nolan Mergenthaler	W	Submission	7-0	Early
2025-04-26	Houston XIV Gi	Theodore Tran	W	Submission	3-0	Early
2025-04-26	Houston XIV Gi	Nicolas Carmo	L	Points	0-2	FINAL

Troy's 1 tracked loss: Nicolas Carmo beat him 2-0 on points in a gold medal match. That's it. The only person to beat Troy did it by the narrowest possible margin in a final. He has never been submitted. He has never lost outside a final. He submits 78% of his opponents — including Theodore Tran, who is also in this bracket.

What this means for Lennox: Troy is the worst possible matchup. He finishes opponents at a rate Lennox has never experienced, against competition levels far above what Lennox has faced. A Troy draw in R1 would be a baptism by fire. If Lennox reaches the final, Troy is likely waiting.

Additional placements: 1st IBJJF Austin Summer, 1st NAGA Houston nogi, 2nd NAGA Houston gi, 2nd AGF Houston gi/nogi, 1st NAGA Houston nogi (Jan).

#2 Eli Scott Vejrostek

Rockstar South Frisco

The volume fighter. High ceiling, exploitable floor.

Metric	Value
Record	21-9 (70.0%)
Rating	840
Tracked matches	25 (most in bracket)
Submission losses	3 (12% of matches)
Loss pattern	Can be submitted while leading on points

His 5 Tracked Losses

Date	Tournament	Opponent	Method	Score	Round
2025-10-18	Dallas XIII Nogi	Damian Alejandro (13-3)	Submission	2-0 (leading!)	FINAL
2025-10-18	Dallas XIII Nogi	Damian Alejandro	Submission	0-4	FINAL
2025-10-18	Dallas XIII Gi	Damian Alejandro	Points	0-5	Pool
2025-06-21	USA Open V Nogi	Colton Thompson (6-3)	Submission	0-7	FINAL
2025-04-05	Texas VII Gi	Jesse Baird	Points	2-6	Early

The critical detail: Damian Alejandro submitted Eli while Eli was winning 2-0 on points. This is a fighter who can be caught mid-match when he thinks he's in control. Three of his five losses are submissions. His loss pattern clusters against specific opponents — Damian Alejandro beat him 3 times in a single day.

What this means for Lennox: Eli is the more exploitable of the two elite fighters. If Lennox has any submission game at all, Eli is the matchup where an upset is mathematically possible. But Eli's volume (25 tracked matches, 6 tournaments) means he has seen every style and recovers from adversity fast.

Additional placements: 2nd IBJJF Dallas Summer, 1st IBJJF Dallas Winter, 2nd NAGA Dallas gi, 3rd NAGA Dallas nogi.

#3 Theodore Tran

Pablo Silva BJJ

The perennial finalist who can't close. Already submitted by Troy in this bracket.

Metric	Value
Record	17-9 (65.4%)
Rating	432
Submission finish rate	0% (all tracked wins by points)
Loss pattern	Loses in finals, often by large margins
Head-to-head vs Troy	0-1 (submitted Apr 2025)

Full Match Tape (6 JJWL matches)

Date	Tournament	Opponent	Result	Method	Score
2025-10-04	Austin II Gi	Landon Lerma (3-0)	L	Points	0-13
2025-10-04	Austin II Gi	Liam Nichols	W	Points	11-0
2025-10-04	Austin II Gi	Joshua Nelson	W	Points	6-0
2025-04-26	Houston XIV Gi	Troy Wong	L	Submission	0-3
2025-04-26	Houston XIV Gi	Kyle Bridges	W	Points	7-0
2025-04-26	Houston XIV Gi	Nolan Mergenthaler	W	Points	4-0

Pattern: Theodore is a pure points fighter — zero submissions in tracked wins. He dominates weaker opponents (11-0, 7-0, 6-0) but gets blown out by elites (0-13 to Lerma, submitted 0-3 by Troy). He already lost to Troy in this bracket's exact matchup.

What this means for Lennox: A Lennox-Theodore matchup is the most interesting stylistic fight. Both are points grinders. Neither finishes opponents. Theodore has 5x the experience but has never shown he can submit anyone. If Lennox can survive Theodore's points game, this match could go the distance.

Additional placements: 1st JJWL Houston XVII (Feb 2026), 1st NAGA Houston nogi, 1st NAGA Houston gi, 2nd IBJJF Houston, 2nd NAGA Houston gi (Jan), 2nd IBJJF Houston Fall '24, 2nd IBJJF Austin Summer '24, 2nd IBJJF Houston '24.

#4 Joshua R Nelson

Soul Fighters Leander

Coin-flip competitor. Gets blanked in every loss.

Metric	Value
Record	7-6 (53.8%)
Rating	168
Loss pattern	Scores 0 points in every tracked loss

Full Match Tape (8 JJWL matches)

Date	Tournament	Opponent	Result	Method	Score
2025-10-04	Austin II Gi	Theodore Tran	L	Points	0-6
2025-10-04	Austin II Gi	Liam Nichols	W	Points	14-0
2025-06-14	New England VI Nogi	Andrea Khobua	W	Submission	0-0
2025-06-14	New England VI Nogi	Jace Gonzalez	L	Points	0-2
2025-06-14	New England VI Gi	Jace Gonzalez	L	Submission	0-2
2025-06-14	New England VI Gi	Sergio Almodovar (38-10)	L	Points	0-5
2025-05-03	New Jersey III Nogi	Noah Walker	W	Submission	5-2
2025-05-03	New Jersey III Nogi	Neo Perez	W	Points	4-2

Pattern: Binary competitor. Either wins comfortably or gets shutout. All 4 losses: scored 0 points in every one. No Plan B when his primary game is neutralized.

What this means for Lennox: Favorable matchup. Joshua's 53.8% and his tendency to get blanked in losses suggest vulnerability. But he has 2 submission wins, which Lennox does not. If Joshua locks something in, he finishes.

Marco Martinez

LEAD BJJ

The bracket's weakest fighter. Full tape confirms it.

Metric	Value
Record	8-14 (36.4%)
Rating	Unranked
Submission wins	0 (has never submitted anyone)
Submission losses	9 (41% of all matches)
Repeat vulnerability	Submitted by Brantley Crouch 2x, Eduardo Carrasco 2x

His 14 Losses (22 matches across AGF + IBJJF)

Date	Tournament	Opponent	Method
2025-03-08	AGF Midland	Andreas Olivas	Submission
2025-03-08	AGF Midland	Ender Wooten	Points
2025-03-08	AGF Midland	Brantley Crouch	Submission
2025-06-14	AGF Kids Worlds	Jackson Trevino	Submission
2025-06-14	AGF Kids Worlds	Troy Hamp	Walkover
2025-06-14	AGF Kids Worlds	Brantley Crouch	Submission
2025-06-14	AGF Kids Worlds	Skylar Jones	Submission
2025-06-14	AGF Kids Worlds	Colin Rzeszut	Submission
2025-08-16	AGF Midland Open	Bruce Lira	Points
2025-08-16	AGF Midland Open	Eduardo Carrasco	Submission
2025-08-16	AGF Midland Open	Ezra Garcia	Submission
2025-08-16	AGF Midland Open	Bruce Lira	Points
2025-08-16	AGF Midland Open	Eduardo Carrasco	Submission
2026-02-14	IBJJF Albuquerque	Gavin C Spann	(IBJJF — no method)

AGF Kids Worlds was catastrophic: 1-4 with 3 submission losses in a single tournament. He went to the national AGF event and got dismantled.

What this means for Lennox: This is the ideal R1 draw. Marco is a points-only fighter with a 36.4% win rate and a catastrophic submission defense problem. Even if Lennox can't submit him, Marco is beatable on points by virtually anyone at grey belt level.

Jackson Glen Ahlstrand

Bastos BJJ Midland

More experienced than his record shows. IBJJF veteran from a small town.

Metric	Value
Record	2-5 (28.6%)
Rating	Unranked
IBJJF placements	10 events, 2 golds, 4 silvers, 4 bronzes

Full Match Tape (2 JJWL matches)

Date	Tournament	Opponent	Result	Method	Score
2025-04-05	Texas VII Gi	Hudson Denny	W	Submission	8-0
2025-04-05	Texas VII Gi	Maxwell Johnson	L	Points	0-2

The 2-5 understates his experience. Jackson has 10 IBJJF placements across 2024-2025 including golds at Waco Kids 2025 and Austin Summer Kids 2024. He travels from Midland (West Texas) to compete at IBJJF events in Dallas, Austin, Houston, and even San Jose.

What this means for Lennox: Winnable but not free. Jackson has IBJJF gold medals — he has won at this competition level before. Don't underestimate a kid from a small gym who drives 5+ hours to compete.

Academy Intelligence

Every fighter in this bracket trains in Texas. These academies see each other at JJWL regionals regularly. There is very little mystery between camps — except for Lennox, who has never competed on the JJWL or IBJJF circuit.

Rank	Academy	City	Fighters	Total Golds	IBJJF Golds	Avg Rating	Their Fighter
#1	Pablo Silva BJJ	Bellaire	404	913	115	375.93	Theodore (17-9)
#5	BJJ Revolution Team	Katy	226	269	33	166.02	Troy (21-5)
#9	Rockstar South Frisco	Frisco	44	137	3	401.55	Eli (21-9)
—	LEAD BJJ	Houston	262	343	71	222.47	Marco (8-14)
#34	Soul Fighters Leander	Leander	62	51	3	117.73	Joshua (7-6)
#178	Bastos BJJ Midland	Midland	8	28	1	311.38	Jackson (2-5)
#333	Gracie Humaita Austin	Austin	24	28	12	206.67	Lennox (5-0)

What Stands Out

Pablo Silva BJJ (#1) is the most dominant youth academy in the country. 404 fighters, 913 golds, 115 at IBJJF. Theodore has the deepest training room in the bracket by a factor of 2x.

BJJ Revolution Team (#5) is Troy's factory. 226 fighters in Katy (Houston metro). Strong JJWL dominance with growing IBJJF presence.

Rockstar South Frisco (#9) is small but deadly — 44 fighters with the highest average rating in the bracket (401.55). Eli's gym produces fewer kids but they're all competitive.

Gracie Humaita Austin (#333) is Lennox's home. Smallest roster in the bracket (24 fighters) but notable IBJJF punch-above-weight: 12 IBJJF golds from just 24 fighters is a strong per-capita rate. The Gracie Humaita affiliation means quality curriculum and lineage.

Submission & Method Analysis

Fighter	Matches	Sub Wins	Sub Losses	Pts Wins	Pts Losses	Sub Finish %	Sub Vulnerability
Troy Wong	9	7	0	1	1	78%	None
Eli Vejrostek	25	9	3	11	2	36%	Moderate — catchable while leading
Theodore Tran	6	0	1	4	1	0%	Low
Joshua Nelson	8	2	1	2	3	25%	Moderate
Marco Martinez	22	0	9	8	5	0%	Extreme — 41% sub loss rate
Lennox Gilmore	5	1	0	4	0	20%	Unknown
Jackson Ahlstrand	2	1	0	0	1	50%	Unknown

Bracket Mechanics & Path Analysis

Structure: 8-draw, 1 bye, single elimination. 7 fighters = 3 first-round matches + 1 bye to semis. Path to gold requires 2 matches (with bye) or 3 matches (without). The bye is decisive.

Lennox's Scenarios

Scenario A — Favorable (25%)

R1: vs Marco or Jackson

SF: vs Theodore

F: vs Troy or Eli

Gold probability: ~10-15%

Scenario B — Moderate (50%)

R1: vs Theodore or Joshua

SF: vs Troy or Eli

Gold probability: ~5%

Scenario C — Nightmare (25%)

R1: vs Troy or Eli

Baptism by fire

Gold probability: ~2-3%

Overall Gold Probability: ~8%

Outcome	Probability	What It Proves
Gold	~8%	Legitimate elite talent. 8-0 with wins over rated opponents = instant top-tier.
Silver	~12%	Beat the field, lost to the best. Breakout performance.
Bronze	~20%	Won 1-2 matches at this level. Promising trajectory.
R1 exit (non-elite)	~25%	Competitive but outclassed. Development needed.
R1 exit (elite)	~35%	Expected outcome. No shame, massive learning.

Lennox's Advantages

Advantage	Why It Matters
Zero film	Nobody has seen him compete. Troy and Eli have been scouted for 25+ matches.
No loss psychology	Has never experienced a tournament loss. No bad memories. Pure confidence.
Nothing to lose	Unranked underdog. Every win is pure upside. Zero pressure to defend a seeding.
Gracie Humaita lineage	Quality technical foundation from a reputable affiliation.
Fresh to the circuit	These Texas JJWL kids know each other's games. Lennox is the unknown variable.

Lennox's Risks

Risk	Severity	Detail
Competition level gap	CRITICAL	NAGA beginner → IBJJF grey belt is the largest possible jump.
Experience deficit	CRITICAL	5 career matches vs bracket avg of 20.7.
Pace shock	HIGH	Troy submits people. Eli scores 15-0 regularly. This is a different speed.
First loss psychology	HIGH	He's never lost. The first loss could cascade mentally.
Training partner depth	MODERATE	24-fighter academy vs 404 (Pablo Silva) or 226 (BJJ Revolution).

Head-to-Head Matchup Guide

Lennox vs Troy (worst case)

Troy submits 78% of opponents and has 0 submission losses. Lennox would need Troy to have an uncharacteristically flat day.

Prediction: Troy by submission.

Lennox vs Eli (high risk, highest reward)

Eli has 3 documented submission losses — the only elite fighter with a finish vulnerability. This is the matchup where lightning could strike.

Prediction: Eli by points or submission.

Lennox vs Theodore (most competitive)

Both are points fighters with 0-20% sub finish rates. Theodore has 5x the experience. Lennox's best shot at an upset against a rated opponent.

Prediction: Theodore by points.

Lennox vs Joshua (winnable)

Joshua scores 0 in every loss — when his game is neutralized, he has no backup. Most even matchup on paper.

Prediction: Toss-up.

Lennox vs Marco (best case R1)

Marco has 0 submission wins and 9 submission losses. This is the draw Lennox needs.

Prediction: Lennox by points.

Lennox vs Jackson (favorable R1)

Jackson has IBJJF golds but limited tracked data. His 1 tracked win was a dominant 8-0 submission.

Prediction: Slight edge Lennox.

The Bottom Line

Lennox Gilmore's 5-0 is a hypothesis, and this bracket is the experiment.

He has the cleanest record in the draw and the least evidence behind it. His entire body of work is 5 matches against white/beginner-level competition at a single NAGA event. He now faces a bracket where the top fighter submits 78% of opponents and the third-best fighter trains at the #1 academy in the country.

The realistic best case is a bronze medal: draw Marco or Jackson in R1, win, then compete hard in the semis even if the result doesn't go his way. That outcome — 6-0 or 7-1 with matches against IBJJF-level opponents — would be a genuine breakout and would establish his rating in the system.

The dream case — gold — requires everything to break right: favorable draw, peak performance, and an opponent error in the final. It's an 8% probability. But 8% happens, and nobody in this bracket knows what Lennox can do. That's the advantage of being unwritten.

Analysis based on Jits.gg data: match-level tape from JJWL, NAGA, and AGF; placement data from IBJJF. All statistics verified as of February 2026.

Want This For Your Bracket?

Every opponent scouted. Every match analyzed. Every academy profiled. Delivered within 24 hours.

$29 • One-time purchase • 24-hour delivery